<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋体"><font size="3">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 本周一，动力煤<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://futures.jrj.com.cn/"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">期货</span></span></a></span>价格突破之前的振荡格局，破位下行，最低触及<span lang="EN-US">510</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨。在国内动力煤价格走低之时，进口煤和国际三港动力煤价格也同步走弱。整体动力煤市场仍然不景气。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-themecolor: text1">　　黄骅港存煤量偏高暗示个别企业销售压力偏大</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋体"><font size="3">　　北方重点港口煤炭库存从<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中旬的低点逐渐上升，目前库存压力并不算太大，但是黄骅港存煤量偏高。秦皇岛港库存约为<span lang="EN-US">630</span>万吨，曹妃甸港库存约为<span lang="EN-US">510</span>万吨，京唐港库存约为<span lang="EN-US">470</span>万吨，均属于正常范围，但黄骅港库存约为<span lang="EN-US">210</span>万吨，属于较高水平。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-themecolor: text1">　　煤矿库存压力大，龙头企业再次酝酿降价</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋体"><font size="3">　　<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://finance.jrj.com.cn/focus/sxmtcz/index.shtml"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">山西煤炭</span></span></a></span>库存从<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月中旬<span lang="EN-US">4420</span>万吨的高位下降至<span lang="EN-US">4050</span>万吨，但仍处于较高位置，煤矿的库存压力较大。从山西五大煤矿集团来看，同煤集团库存最多，达到<span lang="EN-US">650</span>万吨；山西焦煤库存次之，且仍在大幅攀升，比<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年库存量增大<span lang="EN-US">6</span>倍；潞安集团目前库存是<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年库存的<span lang="EN-US">2</span>倍；阳煤集团和晋城煤业的库存压力稍小一些。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋体"><font size="3">　　<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月初，神华、同煤集团在调降高卡位煤炭价格<span lang="EN-US">5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨的同时，提高了低卡位煤价格，这与我们之前的调研吻合。<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月下旬，北方港口对低卡位煤需求大、对高卡位煤需求小，主要原因是，目前南方雨水充足且进入<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://finance.jrj.com.cn/consumer/"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none; mso-themecolor: text1; text-underline: none"><span lang="EN-US">消费</span></span></a></span>淡季，电厂更倾向于采购一些便宜的低卡位煤。但是低卡位煤价格上调后市场并不买账，导致需求下降明显，而高卡位煤调价后销量也没有明显增加，因此，预计本周神华集团会再次对各卡位煤种全面降价。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font face="宋体"><font size="3">　　在市场不景气形势下，一些企业已经有进一步的调价行动。<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月中旬，中煤集团下调煤价<span lang="EN-US">5</span>元<span lang="EN-US">/</span>吨，主要是由于库存高、接货船舶少；<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">29</span>日又增加了量价优惠，意图降低高卡煤库存来扩大市场占有率。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font size="3"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-themecolor: text1">　　下游需求疲弱将继续压制价格</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋体">　　从电厂情况看，六大发电集团煤炭库存<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月之后稳步增加，但增加幅度不大，在雨水充足之际电厂补库力度不强。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋体">　　北方港口锚地船舶数处于低位，甚至出现空泊等船现象，重点港口煤炭运量下降，秦皇岛港至广州和上海煤炭运价创<span lang="EN-US">2009</span>年以来的新低，水泥制造用电量增速由上月的<span lang="EN-US">12.4%</span>下降至<span lang="EN-US">6.5%</span>，这些均说明下游需求不振，煤炭价格将继续受到压制。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p style="line-height: 150%; widows: 2; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1"><font size="3"><font face="宋体">　　总体来看，在下游需求疲弱的背景下，煤矿通过减产降价来稳定市场，后市预计会再次降价促销。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></font></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-themecolor: text1"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="line-height: 150%; font-family: 宋体; color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-themecolor: text1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 来源：期货日报<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p>